Pretty grim. I do not envy the Belorussians. They are stuck in a time-warp – the situation on the ground is clearly better than in, say Ukraine, but the prospects for progress seem negligible. The outcome of a coloured revolution would probably be similar to the disastrous Orange Revolution in Kiev – but brutal suppression of the anti-Lukashenko faction – which clearly lost the election – seems utterly disproportional to any threat. Perhaps by talking up the prospects of coloured revolutions around the region, the Americans and their clients have actually driven the governing parties to adopt a more repressive stance – certainly, that was the case in Russia (when the Americans felt threatened by Russia in the 1950s, their response was a lot less liberal than today’s Russia!).
Probably the best outcome would be a gradual absorption of Belorussia into the Russian Federation. There is no sociological, linguistic or national impediment.
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